24-month global grain market · Black Sea dynamics · Food security
Global wheat production is led by China (17.5%) and India (13.9%), followed by major exporter Russia (11.8%). While China prioritizes self-sufficiency for food security, Russia's record harvests have solidified its position as the world's leading wheat exporter, shipping to over 100 countries.
India's growing exports have increased following the easing of restrictions, while Ukraine's recovery (3.6%) continues post-war, gradually restoring its Black Sea export capacity. Traditional exporters like the US (6.3%), France (4.6%), Canada (4.5%), and Australia (3.3%) maintain stable production with high-quality wheat varieties.
The market outlook remains balanced at $6.05/bu, supported by strong global demand and improving climate conditions. Geopolitical factors, particularly Black Sea logistics and export competition between Russia and Ukraine, continue to influence price volatility.
