Comprehensive nitrogen fertilizer market analysis. Track urea price movements, natural gas cost correlations, production capacity utilization, and demand patterns from major agricultural regions.
Export quotas limit availability, domestic focus
New plants commissioned, imports still needed
Exports continue via alternative routes
Domestic production meets local demand
Major exporter to Europe and Brazil
SABIC maintains high utilization rates
Domestic priority policy limits exports
Low-cost production competitive globally
Global urea production capacity stands at approximately 200 million MT annually, while consumption is around 185 million MT. This 8% oversupply keeps prices depressed despite some producers idling capacity.
Natural gas represents 70-80% of urea production cost. European gas prices down 60% from 2022 peaks, while US Henry Hub remains below $3/MMBtu. This drives production economics and competitive advantages.
China's export restrictions have reshaped global trade. Middle East and North Africa exporters (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) fill supply gaps to Brazil, India, and Europe.
Near-term outlook remains bearish. Prices expected to stay in $280-320/MT range through Spring 2026. Upside risk if gas spikes or China further restricts exports.
Global benchmark holds near $295/MT as oversupply persists
Quotas maintained through Q1 2026 to ensure domestic supply
Lower energy costs improve nitrogen fertilizer margins
October shipments up 25% YoY despite domestic expansion
Reducing output 15% due to weak demand and low prices
Farmers stockpiling ahead of soybean planting season
September exports exceeded 500,000 MT to multiple markets
Corn acreage uncertainty and low grain prices reduce urgency
Henry Hub futures flat through 2026, supporting urea outlook
Sanctions workarounds maintain Russia's export presence
Urea price data from FertilizerWeek, Green Markets, Argus Media, and Profercy. Natural gas prices from ICE, Henry Hub (NYMEX), and TTF (Europe). Production data from IFA, CRU, and national statistics bureaus.
