Comprehensive grain market analysis tracking soybean futures, global production from US, Brazil, and Argentina, China import patterns, crushing margins, and renewable diesel demand impact.
Record 52 bu/acre yield projected for 2025
Mato Grosso expansion continues, 175M MT forecast
Drought reduces production, farmers shift to corn
Domestic production insufficient, imports at 100M MT
Government promotes soybean to reduce import dependency
Exports increase despite logistical challenges
Global soybean production approximately 402M MT in 2024/25, with consumption at 395M MT. Brazil now produces more than US (162M MT vs 124M MT). Tight US ending stocks at 4.8% stocks-to-use ratio support price floor.
US soybean oil demand for renewable diesel surged 15% in 2025. Federal RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard) and state-level LCFS (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) programs drive crush demand. Soymeal becomes byproduct instead of primary driver.
Brazil overtook US as world's largest producer in 2020 and continues expanding. Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná drive growth. Argentina struggles with drought, high taxes, and currency issues, losing acreage to corn.
Soybeans expected to trade in $10.50-11.50 range through Spring 2026. Downside limited by tight US stocks and strong crushing. Upside capped by record South American crops and sluggish export demand outside China.
Strong crushing demand and tight US stocks support prices
Ideal weather and increased acreage drive production gains
Strong hog production boosts soymeal demand
September crush at 187M bushels, renewable diesel demand surges
Early season moisture deficit raises concerns
Tariff uncertainties ease, purchase pace expected to accelerate
RD23 and IRA incentives drive biofuel feedstock demand
Currency appreciation may slow export pace
Tightest ratio in 5 years supports price floor
Strong consumption outpaces production gains
Soybean price data from CME Group (CBOT), USDA WASDE reports, and Trading Economics. Production statistics from USDA, CONAB (Brazil), Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, and CNGOIC (China). Crushing data from NOPA, ABIOVE, and industry sources.
