Comprehensive potassium fertilizer market analysis. Track MOP (Muriate of Potash) price movements, geopolitical sanctions impact, production capacity from major suppliers, and global agricultural demand.
Nutrien and Mosaic maintain capacity despite weak prices
Exports continue via non-sanctioned routes to Asia
Sanctions limit export access to traditional markets
Domestic production supplements imports
K+S maintains steady European supply
Dead Sea potash production at capacity
Potash market is highly concentrated with Canada, Russia, and Belarus controlling 76% of global production. This oligopolistic structure makes prices sensitive to production decisions by major players and geopolitical disruptions.
Global potash demand approximately 70M MT/year while production capacity exceeds 90M MT. Oversupply has persisted since 2022, but producers now implementing production cuts to support prices.
EU and US sanctions on Belarus potash (16.5% of global supply) redirected flows to Asia. Russia maintains exports despite sanctions via alternative logistics and payment systems.
Potash prices expected to stabilize in $300-330/MT range through 2026. Supply discipline from major producers should prevent further declines. Upside potential if geopolitical tensions escalate or major capacity idled.
MOP benchmark stable at $310/MT FOB as supply discipline improves
Canadian miner reducing output to support prices amid oversupply
3-year agreement for 2M MT annually at market-linked pricing
Alternative shipping routes bypass European sanctions successfully
Domestic production shortfall drives record overseas purchases
Sanctions force production cuts as inventory builds
Malaysia and Indonesia increase imports for palm oil plantations
Improved logistics support higher export volumes to US Gulf
Warehouse stocks down 8% from peak levels as supply adjusts
US farmers reduce potash applications with corn at $4.25/bu
Potash price data from CRU Group, Argus Media, Green Markets, and Fertecon. Production statistics from IFA, USGS, Natural Resources Canada, and company reports. Reserve data from USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.
